1/4/2024 0 Comments Bob hugin poll![]() Put another way, the model is indicating Hugin may pull off the upset. The 95% confidence on that ranges from a Menendez victory of 23 points (if everything went Menendez’s way) to a Hugin win of 6 points (if everything went Hugin’s way). Bob Menendez (D-NJ) Monday as a new poll shows the race is now a statistical tie. Senate in New Jersey, launched a blistering attack on Sen. how blue New Jersey usually is, the fact that Hugin has never held elected office, etc.), Menendez is favored to win by 8 percentage points. GOP’s Hugin Attacks Menendez as Poll Shows NJ Senate Race a Statistical Tie 251 Associated Press Michael Patrick Leahy 0 Bob Hugin, the GOP nominee for the U.S. In a model I built that takes into account the polls and the fundamentals (e.g. It at least opens the door to Menendez losing re-election. In that same Quinnipiac University poll in which his net favorability rating is -19 points, his net job approval rating stood at +2 percentage points.Ī +2 net approval rating for a two-term incumbent Democratic senator still isn’t very good, however. Menendez may also benefit from voters willing to pull the lever because they like the job he is doing even if they don’t like him personally. Trump lost New Jersey by 14 points in 2016. Republican President Ronald Reagan won Nevada by 36 points in 1980. ![]() Teamsters union officials were accused of bribing Cannon.Ĭannon, though, was running in a much redder state than Menendez is this year. As with Menendez this year, Cannon suffered at the polls because of a scandal. Howard Cannon lost re-election to Chic Hecht that year. You’d have to go back to 1982 to find an example of when this wasn’t true. They tend to lose when the President is extremely popular (like in 19). Opposition party senators running in midterms have won 96% of the time since 1982. Menendez may be disliked, but Trump is even more disliked. This is 8 points lower than Menendez’s net favorable rating. The President has a 35% approval rating to 62% disapproval rating, which makes for a net approval rating of -27 percentage points. Look at Trump’s approval rating and disapproval rating split in the same poll, though. Such a low rating would usually spell disaster for a senator running for re-election. That’s bad enough for a net favorable rating of -19 percentage points. His favorable rating in the latest Quinnipiac University poll, for example, stands at 34% to an unfavorable rating of 53%. The latter is likely to carry the day.įollowing a federal corruption trial that ended in a hung jury, Menendez saw his personal brand take a tumble. There are two factors competing against each other: voter dislike for Menendez and voter dislike for President Donald Trump. 22 Quinnipiac University poll included: There is a wide racial gap as Hugin leads 47 to 38 percent among white voters and Menendez leads 51 to 18 percent among. ![]() He is, however, strongly favored to win re-election, even at this point. Indeed, it’s plausible that Menendez does lose. Three high-quality polls released over the last two days give Menendez a lead of anywhere from just 2 to 11 points. Bob Menendez in trouble against Republican Bob Hugin. Hugin, remaining calm, stood his ground and offered a terse rebuttal.A Republican winning a US Senate race in deep blue New Jersey? It hasn’t happened since 1972. Menendez went on the attack about Celgene “not telling patients about potentially fatal side effects” of a cancer drug. Hugin, with a mild eye roll, waited as Mr. Menendez said, turning completely to face Mr. Hugin sought to defend an advertisement his campaign released that resurrected unsubstantiated allegations seeking to link Mr. But after 50 minutes of avoiding outright confrontation, Mr. “There are thousands, hundreds of thousands of patients that are alive today that wouldn’t otherwise be alive, because of Celgene.” A frosty exchangeįor most of the debate, the candidates rarely interrupted each other or raised their voices. Hugin defended Celgene’s record, saying its medicines had saved lives. Trump’s presidential campaign and had been chairman of his campaign in New Jersey. ![]() Trump as being “divisive on the issue of race.”įor his part, Mr. “No I’m not a Trump Republican, I’m an independent Republican,” he said. Hugin did try to distance himself from the president. “You can’t in 60 minutes change what you’ve been for 60 years,” Mr. Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court and health care. Trump on a variety of issues, including the federal tax law, the nomination of Brett M. Throughout the debate, a prevailing line of attack for Mr. Hugin to the president, hoping voters will make the race a proxy referendum on Mr. Menendez has sought in the closing weeks of the campaign to tether Mr. With a motivated Democratic base in New Jersey threatening to claim traditionally Republican congressional districts, Mr.
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